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2005

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News Release

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

EUB AND NEB RELEASE ALBERTA CONVENTIONAL GAS POTENTIAL REPORT

Calgary, AB (March 7, 2005) The National Energy Board (NEB) and the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) (the Boards) will jointly release a report entitled Alberta's Ultimate Potential for Conventional Natural Gas on Wednesday March 9, 2005.

The report estimates that Alberta's ultimate potential for marketable conventional natural gas is 6276 billion cubic metres (223 trillion cubic feet). The report shows that 2838 billion cubic metres (101 trillion cubic feet) of conventional natural gas remains to be developed. Of the remaining 2838 billion cubic metres (101 trillion cubic feet), there is 1104 billion cubic metres (39 trillion cubic feet) discovered and 1734 billion cubic metres (62 trillion cubic feet) undiscovered. Data from 320,000 wells drilled to December 2004 was used to arrive at the numbers.

In 1994, the Boards signed Common Reserves Database Agreement Memorandum of Understanding. Honouring this agreement, the Boards began work on the joint study the first collaborative effort by the two Boards who, respectively, prepare estimates of energy supply and demand on provincial and national scales. The report enables estimates to be made about the volume of conventional natural gas available to meet future Canadian domestic and export demands.

Canada fulfils an important role in the North American natural gas market. Today, Canada provides about 25 per cent of the total North American gas production. Alberta is the major contributor to gas supply, accounting for almost 80 per cent of total Canadian production.

The NEB is an independent federal agency that regulates several aspects of Canada's energy industry. Its purpose is to promote safety, environmental protection and economic efficiency in the Canadian public interest within the mandate set by Parliament in the regulation of pipelines, energy development and trade.

The EUB ensures that the discovery, development, and delivery of Alberta's resources and utilities services take place in a manner that is fair, responsible, and in the public interest.

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Note to editors:Please see backgrounder for more detailed information.

For more information:

Darin Barter
EUB Communications
Office: (403) 297-4116
Cellular: (403) 651-9487
darin.barter@gov.ab.ca 
Denis Tremblay
NEB Communications Officer
Office: (403) 299-2717
Fax: (403) 292-5503
dtremblay@neb-one.gc.ca

Backgrounder

This report is the first collaborative report for the EUB and the NEB. The two Boards prepare estimates of energy supply and demand on provincial and national scales. The size of the natural gas resource base is a key component required to make projections of future natural gas supply. In 2001, the Boards separately came to the conclusion that new analyses of Alberta's ultimate potential were required. Given the existing Common Reserves Database Agreement that applied to conventional oil and gas reserves and to demonstrate regulatory efficiency, the Boards decided to collaborate on a new study of Alberta's ultimate potential.

Highlights

Having regard for the inherent uncertainty in estimating geological prospects and predicting gas potential, the project team estimated a range for the ultimate potential for marketable conventional natural gas in Alberta to be 5765 billion cubic metres (205 trillion cubic feet) to 7134 billion cubic metres (253 trillion cubic feet), as shown in Table A. The Boards have adopted the medium case as their estimate of ultimate potential for marketable conventional natural gas. Note that this estimate does not include unconventional gas, such as coalbed methane (CBM). The new estimate for conventional natural gas will be used by both Boards in future supply projections.

Table A. Alberta's ultimate potential for marketable conventional natural gas

                                    Gas in place                               Marketable gas

Case

109 m3

Tcf

109 m3

Tcf

Low

9 731

345

5 765

205

Medium

10 583

376

6 276

223

High

12 012

426

7 134

253

Table B shows a breakdown of ultimate potential for natural gas into its components as of early December 2004 (production to end of October 2004).

Table B. Categorization of ultimate potentialmedium case

Gas in place

Marketable gas

Category

109 m3

Tcf

109 m3

Tcf

Discovered

7 744

275

4 542

161

Cumulative production

5 863

208

3 438

122

Remaining discovered

1 882

67

1 104

39

Undiscovered

2 838

101

1 734

62

Ultimate potential

10 583

376

6 276

223

Remaining ultimate potential

4 720

168

2 838

101

Terminology

Ultimate potential refers to an estimate of the volume of marketable gas reserves that will be proven to exist in a geological basin or in a specific area after exploration has ceased, having regard for the geological prospects of that area and anticipated technology and economic conditions. At any point in time, ultimate potential is the sum of resources that have been discovered and resources that are still undiscovered. Discovered resources have been confirmed by wells drilled, while undiscovered resources are expected to be discovered by future drilling.

Cumulative production is the total amount of natural gas produced to a given date.

Gas in place is the volume of gas in the reservoir.

Recoverable gas is the volume that can be produced.

Marketable gas is the volume that remains after processing.

Remaining gas (ultimate potential minus cumulative production) represents the volume available to meet future market demands.

NR2005-04

Page Last Updated: March 7, 2005